CBRE Forecasts Slower Asia-Pacific Office Demand Growth Through 2030
CBRE projects occupied office space in Asia-Pacific will grow 13% by 2030 under a moderate AI-displacement scenario, a five-point reduction from the base case, as automation reshapes demand toward premium collaborative spaces.
Occupied office space in the Asia-Pacific region is projected to grow 13% between 2026 and 2030 under a moderate AI-driven job displacement scenario. This represents a slowdown from an 18% expansion forecast in a base case with no AI impact, according to new modeling from CBRE.
CBRE's analysis shows a moderate AI displacement scenario would reduce office space demand growth by five percentage points through 2030. Despite this, occupied space is still projected to increase. The slowdown stems from AI's expected reduction in routine task demand.
Employment trends diverge by market development level
Office employment is forecast to grow 9% under the moderate AI displacement scenario between 2026 and 2030. This compares to a 14% estimated growth in the baseline case. Under a rapid-displacement scenario, expansion would be just 2%. A slow-displacement scenario would see 12% growth.
Vulnerability to AI displacement varies sharply between developed and emerging economies. CBRE estimates 3.9% of office jobs in developed Asia-Pacific markets are vulnerable to AI-driven displacement. In developing markets, the figure is 1.7%. This split correlates with higher concentrations of white-collar, desk-based work in cities like Tokyo, Singapore, Sydney, and Seoul.
| Market Type | Office Jobs Vulnerable to AI | Office Worker Share of Employment |
|---|---|---|
| Developed (e.g., Singapore, Hong Kong, Australia) | 3.9% | >35% |
| Developing (e.g., Indonesia, Vietnam) | 1.7% | <10% |
Across the whole region, jobs at meaningful displacement risk from AI are under 2% of total employment. A further 8% of the workforce is considered potentially at risk but with better scope to adapt via reskilling.
Occupiers plan expansion while demand shifts to premium assets
Around half of occupiers intend to expand their real estate footprint over the next three years. CBRE expects occupied office space to expand at a slightly faster pace than office employment from 2026 to 2030. The drivers differ by market.
In developed Asia-Pacific markets, occupied space is projected to grow 5% under the moderate scenario. This is linked to occupiers replenishing space after pandemic-era optimization and allocating more area for employee experience. In developing markets, structural economic upgrading supports a much stronger 19% projected growth.
Demand is becoming increasingly concentrated in top-quality buildings in core districts. Tom Gaffney, CBRE’s Asia-Pacific head of leasing, said AI would increasingly take over routine tasks, making collaborative and client-facing work "even more valuable." Secondary buildings could face greater pressure as occupiers emphasize connectivity and building quality. This mismatch is expected to accelerate the refurbishment, repositioning, or conversion of older properties.
CBRE's broader Asia-Pacific occupier survey found 46% of companies are now AI adopters or active movers in applying AI to corporate real estate decisions. That is up sharply from 9% in 2024.
Vacancy rates to rise moderately but remain manageable
Under the moderate AI displacement scenario, the overall Asia-Pacific office vacancy rate is projected to rise to 18% by 2030. This is up from 16% in the second quarter of 2026. In the base case, the vacancy rate would ease to 15% by the end of the decade.
A shrinking development pipeline is forecast to cushion the effect of slower demand growth. Ada Choi, CBRE’s Asia-Pacific head of research, said: "Even if AI moderates office demand growth, we do not foresee a major supply-demand imbalance emerging in Apac." She added that the pipeline is expected to help support market balance and relatively stable vacancy levels.
CBRE expects demand to become increasingly concentrated in top-quality buildings in core districts supporting collaborative and knowledge-intensive work.
